Analysts Maintain Bullish Stance on UnitedHealth Despite Earnings Drop and Regulatory Scrutiny

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) faces a pivotal moment as it prepares to report Q4 2025 earnings on January 27, with analysts projecting a steep 69% decline in EPS to $2.12. The drop reflects mounting Medicare Advantage costs and ongoing regulatory investigations into billing practices. Yet Wall Street remains optimistic, maintaining 16 Buy ratings with a $399.61 average price target—12.7% above current levels.

The healthcare giant's stock has weathered a 34% decline over the past year amid Justice Department probes and Senate inquiries. Trading volume recently spiked 5% above average as investors position for potential Medicare Advantage rate adjustments that could exceed Street forecasts by 4-5 percentage points in 2027.

While rebating ACA plan profits to members may ease congressional scrutiny, rising medical cost ratios continue to pressure margins. The earnings report will test whether UnitedHealth's diversified business model can absorb these headwinds as effectively as analysts predict.